For years, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia presented a united front of geopolitical and economic strength across the Gulf region and beyond. However, a growing Gulf rivalry and a struggle for regional influence have recently escalated, most visibly in Yemen, following years of diverging interests spanning vital waterways to the halls of power in Washington. Analysts point to a shift in the dynamic between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, once considered close allies, as a key factor in this evolving landscape.
The Erosion of a Once-Strong Alliance
The relationship between the Saudi Crown Prince and the UAE President was long viewed as the cornerstone of cooperation between the two Gulf powers. However, as their individual ambitions expanded, and Prince Mohammed accelerated ambitious economic reforms within Saudi Arabia while simultaneously asserting Saudi dominance internationally, whispers of a rift with Sheikh Mohamed began to surface. The Emirati leader, previously seen as a mentor to Prince Mohammed, now finds himself increasingly at odds with Saudi Arabia on several critical fronts.
This divergence is now playing out in disputes over oil production, the situation in Sudan, the Horn of Africa, and, most prominently, Yemen. While both nations are part of the anti-Houthi military coalition in Yemen, they are backing opposing factions within the internationally recognized government, highlighting the depth of the disagreement.
Deep Strategic and Ideological Differences
Yemen and Gulf expert Baraa Shiban identifies fundamental strategic and ideological differences as the root of the escalating tensions. Saudi Arabia, he explains, is concerned by the UAE’s perceived willingness to destabilize countries like Yemen and Sudan by supporting disruptive forces in pursuit of influence. Riyadh, in contrast, prioritizes preserving existing authorities.
Furthermore, Shiban notes a significant difference in perspective regarding political Islam. The UAE exhibits what he describes as an “obsession” with combating the Muslim Brotherhood and broader political Islam, a stance it actively promotes throughout the region, but which Saudi Arabia does not share to the same extent. Underlying this is Saudi Arabia’s determination to maintain its traditional position of regional preeminence. The UAE’s independent forging of bilateral deals and establishing influence through non-state actors is viewed with considerable concern by Riyadh.
Yemen: A Flashpoint for Competition
The escalating Gulf tensions became particularly evident in Yemen recently when the Southern Transitional Council (STC), backed by the UAE and a member of Yemen’s governing alliance, seized control of resource-rich provinces like Hadramawt and Mahra from government forces supported by Saudi Arabia.
This move prompted a direct response from the Saudi-led coalition, which allegedly bombed an Emirati weapons shipment intended for the separatists. However, the cracks in the coalition had been visible for years, with the UAE withdrawing the majority of its forces as early as July 2019. Shiban asserts that the aims of the UAE and Saudi Arabia in Yemen are “significantly different” and ultimately irreconcilable.
Diverging Approaches to Stability
The core of the issue lies in differing visions for Yemen’s future. Saudi Arabia seeks to restore the internationally recognized government and maintain a unified Yemen, while the UAE appears to prioritize securing its own interests, even if that means supporting separatist movements. This fundamental disagreement makes a unified strategy impossible.
Sudan and the Horn of Africa: Expanding Arenas of Influence
The competition extends beyond Yemen. In Sudan, the UAE has been accused of supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) engaged in a brutal conflict with the Sudanese army since April 2023, accusations the UAE denies. Meanwhile, the Sudanese army receives support from Saudi Arabia.
The Horn of Africa has also emerged as a key area of competition, due to its strategic location along vital shipping lanes. The UAE has cultivated strong ties with Ethiopia and Somaliland, operating a military base in the port of Berbera since 2017, while Saudi Arabia has focused on bolstering the government in Mogadishu. Israel’s recent recognition of Somaliland, condemned by Saudi Arabia and many other Muslim nations, further illustrates the diverging interests, with the UAE notably abstaining from the condemnation.
Economic Rivalry and the Pursuit of Diversification
The Saudi-UAE rivalry isn’t limited to geopolitical maneuvering; it extends to the economic sphere. Following a dispute over OPEC output cuts in 2021, economic competition has intensified as both countries strive to diversify their economies away from oil.
Riyadh has aggressively pursued attracting multinational corporations, requiring companies dealing with government agencies to establish regional headquarters within Saudi Arabia, prompting some to relocate from the UAE. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 blueprint includes ambitious projects in aviation, tourism, and media, directly challenging Dubai’s established dominance. Recent relaxations of laws allowing foreign residents to purchase alcohol are also seen as a move to attract talent currently drawn to the UAE.
In conclusion, the once-seamless alliance between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is undergoing a significant transformation. Driven by diverging strategic interests, ideological differences, and economic competition, the Gulf rivalry is reshaping the regional landscape. The situation in Yemen, Sudan, and the Horn of Africa serves as a stark illustration of this evolving dynamic, and its long-term implications remain to be seen. Understanding these complexities is crucial for anyone seeking to analyze the future of the Middle East.