The global financial markets are currently experiencing significant turbulence, largely fueled by escalating tensions between the US administration and the Federal Reserve. This situation, characterized by a perceived attack on the Fed’s independence, is driving investors towards traditional safe-haven assets, most notably gold and silver. The recent actions have sparked concerns about the stability of the US dollar and the broader economic outlook, leading to a dramatic shift in investment strategies.
تصاعد التوتر بين ترامب والاحتياطي الفيدرالي وتأثيره على الأسواق
Donald Trump’s history is marked by a willingness to challenge established norms, and his approach to the Federal Reserve is no exception. The recent Department of Justice investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell, following statements made during Senate testimony, has been widely interpreted as a politically motivated attempt to undermine the Fed’s authority. This isn’t simply a disagreement over monetary policy; it’s a direct challenge to the institution’s independence, a cornerstone of economic stability. The timing is particularly jarring, with markets anticipating a discussion about Powell’s successor later this month, despite his term extending to May 2026.
This aggressive move has triggered a swift and decisive reaction from investors, who are increasingly wary of the political climate impacting economic decision-making. Powell himself responded forcefully, defending the Fed’s commitment to non-partisan policy. However, the damage appears to be done, as evidenced by the dramatic market shifts.
انهيار الدولار وارتفاع أسعار المعادن الثمينة
The immediate consequence of this political friction has been a sharp decline in the US dollar. As investors seek safer ground, gold and silver are experiencing a surge in demand, pushing prices to unprecedented levels. The dollar index is plummeting, signaling a loss of confidence in the currency.
This isn’t just a temporary flight to safety. There’s a structural shift underway, with central banks and investors actively diversifying away from US assets. China, in particular, is leading a global charge to reduce reliance on the dollar, bolstering its own reserves with precious metals like gold. This trend, coupled with the current political instability, is accelerating the dollar’s decline and driving up the value of alternative assets.
Currently, silver has broken the $85 barrier, and gold is comfortably trading above its previous peak of $4,600. Platinum, palladium, copper, and aluminum are also experiencing significant gains, indicating a broad-based rally across the metals sector. This widespread demand underscores the growing anxiety surrounding the global economic landscape.
تحليل فني لأسعار الذهب والفضة (XAU/USD & XAG/USD)
Let’s delve into a technical analysis of gold (XAU/USD) and silver (XAG/USD) to identify potential trading opportunities.
الذهب (XAU/USD) – نظرة فنية
The daily chart for gold reveals a strong bullish trend. Breaking above $4,500 has amplified the positive fundamentals. A robust upward channel has formed, with the recent bounce propelling prices to new all-time highs around $4,630. A minor technical resistance is anticipated at $4,666, based on a key Fibonacci projection from the 2023 lows to mid-2025 levels. If this level is breached, the next significant target is $5,000, coinciding with the top of the channel.
On the 2-hour chart, gold is forming a tight bull channel. While the rally is currently stalling due to overbought conditions, aggressive buying on pullbacks could be expected around $4,590. A break below the steep session channel could lead to a retest of the previous all-time highs around $4,550.
Key Resistance Levels for Gold:
- $4,630 (Current Session High)
- $4,660 – $4,670 (Potential Resistance)
- $4,700 – $4,720 (Mini-Resistance)
- $5,000 (Top of Daily Channel & Psychological Level)
Key Support Levels for Gold:
- $4,590 (Intraday Channel Lows)
- $4,500 – $4,550 (Previous ATH Pivot)
- $4,400 (Major Intraday Support)
- $4,280 (December 31 Mini-Support)
- $3,950 – $4,000 (Weekly Major Pivot)
الفضة (XAG/USD) – نظرة فنية
Silver is demonstrating even more explosive growth, currently up around 8% in today’s trading session, easily surpassing the $85 psychological level. Like gold, it’s forming a daily channel with no immediate resistance before the $88 to $89 Fibonacci area. Unless there’s a significant fundamental shift, the rally appears poised to continue.
The 2-hour chart shows silver traders focusing on whether bulls can maintain momentum above the sideways channel, or continue within the steep bull channel, potentially leading to even more aggressive gains. A break below the current channel could signal a retest of the $80.00 momentum pivot.
Key Resistance Levels for Silver:
- $86.23 (Session and All-Time Highs)
- $87 – $89 (Potential Mini-Resistance)
- $90 – $92 (Potential Mini-Resistance & Psychological Level)
Key Support Levels for Silver:
- $82 – $84 (Previous ATH Pivot)
- $80.00 (Momentum Pivot)
- $75 – $77 (Minor Support & Channel Lows)
- $70.00 (December 31 Lows)
- $58.00 – $60.00 (Pre-FOMC Major Support)
الخلاصة: تحوطات آمنة في ظل حالة عدم اليقين
The current market environment is characterized by heightened uncertainty and a growing preference for safe-haven assets. The escalating tensions between the US administration and the Federal Reserve, coupled with the dollar’s weakening position, are driving investors towards gold and silver. The technical analysis suggests continued bullish momentum for both metals, with potential for further gains.
This situation highlights the importance of diversification and careful risk management. Investors should closely monitor developments in the US political landscape and adjust their portfolios accordingly. The era of unquestioning faith in US assets may be coming to an end, and a new order, defined by a more balanced and diversified global financial system, is beginning to emerge.
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