The International Crisis Group’s latest report paints a grim picture for global stability, predicting that 2026 is unlikely to witness a decrease in violent conflict compared to the preceding year. Released on Wednesday, the “Conflicts to Watch” report identifies ten global hotspots, with the Middle East heavily represented, where diplomatic solutions appear increasingly distant. The report highlights a concerning trend: a potential normalization of conflict as a tool of statecraft, particularly under the current US administration. This analysis delves into the key findings concerning the Middle East, examining the volatile situations in Israel-Palestine, Syria, Yemen, Iran, and Sudan.
Middle East on a Knife Edge: A Looming Crisis in 2026
The report underscores a worrying lack of progress in resolving long-standing conflicts across the Middle East. Diplomatic efforts are described as “tenuous at best, and immaterial at worst” in many of these critical areas. While acknowledging some unconventional approaches by US President Donald Trump, the Crisis Group argues that his policies haven’t eased global tensions and, in some instances, have exacerbated them. The report specifically points to US actions, such as strikes against fishing boats in the Caribbean aimed at destabilizing Venezuela, as evidence of a departure from peacemaking rhetoric.
The Israel-Palestine Conflict: A Fragile Ceasefire and Escalating Restrictions
The situation in Israel-Palestine remains a central concern. The report notes an initial positive step with a ceasefire in Gaza secured through US pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu. However, this momentum was quickly lost, leading to further violence and the deaths of thousands of Palestinians. The current ceasefire, brokered by Trump in October, is deemed “fragile” and reliant on sustained US mediation, the effectiveness of which remains uncertain.
The report emphasizes the systemic dismantling of Palestinian capacity for self-determination, despite international recognition of their rights. Simultaneously, restrictions on movement, economic hardship, land confiscation, and settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank continue unabated, with hints of potential formal annexation. This ongoing pressure contributes to a bleak outlook for Palestinians in the year ahead.
Iran and Yemen: Proxy Conflicts and Regional Instability
The report reveals a complex interplay of tensions between Israel, the US, Iran, and the Houthis in Yemen. Allegations suggest that initial diplomatic overtures towards Iran by the Trump administration were a deceptive tactic, orchestrated at the behest of Netanyahu to justify potential military action. This ultimately led to unprecedented strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
Concurrently, the US launched numerous attacks against the Houthis, viewed as an Iranian proxy. Despite Israeli and US efforts to weaken the Houthis, they remain a potent force, disrupting Red Sea shipping with drone and missile attacks. Inside Iran, a comprehensive nuclear deal appears increasingly unlikely. The situation in Yemen is further complicated by a growing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, backing opposing factions and highlighting the unpredictable nature of the conflict. This regional power struggle adds another layer of complexity to the already volatile situation.
Syria: A Precarious Peace and Emerging Sectarian Tensions
Syria, under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, has seen a degree of stabilization with the return of over a million refugees and a loosening of international sanctions. However, the report warns of growing frustration, particularly among the Sunni Arab majority, with the concentration of power around Sharaa.
The report also details a disturbing sectarian massacre in March, resulting in as many as 1,500 deaths, and subsequent outbreaks of violence in the Druze region, prompting Israeli air strikes. The presence of Islamic State remnants and the potential for renewed conflict between the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian government further complicate the situation. Turkey’s potential intervention remains a significant threat, contingent on the progress of negotiations between Damascus and the SDF.
Sudan: A Nation Divided and the Role of External Actors
The conflict in Sudan is escalating, with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), backed by the United Arab Emirates, challenging the authority of the Sudanese army, supported by Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. The report alleges extensive arms flows from the UAE to the RSF, driven by Abu Dhabi’s concerns about the army’s ties to Islamist elements.
The RSF’s recent capture of El Fasher has deepened Sudan’s de facto partition. Despite mediation efforts led by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, a truce remains elusive. The Crisis Group argues that Trump is uniquely positioned to halt the war, a sentiment echoed by Sudan’s ambassador to the US, who has called for greater US involvement and the designation of the RSF as a terrorist organization. The Sudan conflict is a prime example of how external actors can exacerbate internal tensions.
Conclusion: A Bleak Outlook and the Need for Proactive Diplomacy
The International Crisis Group’s report offers a sobering assessment of the global security landscape, particularly in the Middle East. The prediction that 2026 will likely be as violent as the year before underscores the urgent need for proactive and effective diplomacy. The report’s findings suggest that the current approach, characterized by “lawlessness, revisionism and cavalier use of force,” risks normalizing conflict as a legitimate tool of international relations. Addressing the regional instability requires a concerted effort from international actors to de-escalate tensions, support inclusive political processes, and address the root causes of conflict. The Middle East crisis demands immediate attention to prevent further deterioration and safeguard regional and global security. Ignoring these warnings could lead to a significantly more dangerous and unstable world.
